CRASH MAP
Tracking the indicators that have preceded every major US stock market crash. When all lights are red, history says: get out.
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SHILLER CAPE RATIO
Cyclically Adjusted P/E (10-year avg earnings)
--
Historical average: 17.3 | Dot-com peak: 44.2
1020304050
BUFFETT INDICATOR
Total Market Cap / GDP
--
Historical average: 80-100% | Fire zone: >200%
40%100%150%200%300%
VIX (FEAR INDEX)
CBOE Volatility Index
--
Average: 19 | Low VIX + high valuations = complacency danger
1020304050+
S&P 500 TRAILING P/E
Current price / trailing 12-month earnings
--
Historical average: 15-16 | Dot-com peak: 46 | GFC peak: 24
1015202535+
CRASH PROBABILITY BY CAPE LEVEL
Historical probability of a 20%+ drawdown within the next 3 years, based on CAPE ratio at entry.
| CAPE RANGE | PROBABILITY OF 20%+ DROP | RISK LEVEL |
|---|
HISTORICAL CRASHES TIMELINE
Every major crash was preceded by extreme CAPE and/or Buffett Indicator readings. The pattern repeats.
1929 — THE GREAT CRASH
Black Tuesday
CAPE before: 33 (1.9x average)
Drop: -86% over 3 years
Recovery: 25 years
Drop: -86% over 3 years
Recovery: 25 years
1973-74 — OIL CRISIS
Stagflation Bear Market
CAPE before: 18 (at average) | Buffett: 75%
Drop: -48%
Trigger: Oil embargo, inflation, Nixon
Drop: -48%
Trigger: Oil embargo, inflation, Nixon
1987 — BLACK MONDAY
Single-Day Crash
CAPE before: 18 | Buffett: 65%
Drop: -34% (22% in one day)
Recovery: 2 years
Drop: -34% (22% in one day)
Recovery: 2 years
2000 — DOT-COM BUST
Tech Bubble Burst
CAPE before: 44.2 (2.6x average) | Buffett: 148%
Drop: -49% (Nasdaq -78%)
Recovery: 7 years (13 for Nasdaq)
Drop: -49% (Nasdaq -78%)
Recovery: 7 years (13 for Nasdaq)
2008 — GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
Housing / Banking Collapse
CAPE before: 27 (1.6x average) | Buffett: 110%
Drop: -57%
Recovery: 5.5 years
Drop: -57%
Recovery: 5.5 years
2020 — COVID CRASH
Pandemic Shock
CAPE before: 31 (1.8x average) | Buffett: 155%
Drop: -34% in 23 trading days
Recovery: 5 months (Fed printer)
Drop: -34% in 23 trading days
Recovery: 5 months (Fed printer)
2022 — RATE HIKE BEAR
Fed Tightening Crash
CAPE before: 38 (2.2x average) | Buffett: 200%
Drop: -25%
Recovery: ~2 years
Drop: -25%
Recovery: ~2 years
2026 — NOW
Current Readings
CAPE: -- (--x average) | Buffett: --
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WHAT TO DO AT THESE LEVELS
Disclaimer: This page is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Past indicator readings do not guarantee future outcomes. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data updates every 4 hours via automated fetch.